tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7444476276287180978.post1445374105379966196..comments2023-11-20T05:15:20.137-05:00Comments on Behind the Headlines: Personal Capitulation?Michael Kahnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10668546349672243203noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7444476276287180978.post-62084746104245938922008-12-16T06:52:00.000-05:002008-12-16T06:52:00.000-05:00Well the good news is historically the market will...Well the good news is historically the market will go dead from this Friday until January 5th. Take a break.<BR/><BR/>Now you do realize that if you do take a break this will then be the most active two weeks in xmas history!patrick neidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05381083122153127803noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7444476276287180978.post-19116283725313043092008-12-16T06:50:00.000-05:002008-12-16T06:50:00.000-05:00Art,Well said. At the end of the last bear market ...Art,<BR/><BR/>Well said. <BR/><BR/>At the end of the last bear market when I was editor for the Market Technicians Association newsletter I put a picture of a giant growling grizzly on the cover with the caption "Oh, no, I'm a contrary indicator."Michael Kahnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10668546349672243203noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7444476276287180978.post-27657867535747633852008-12-16T06:47:00.000-05:002008-12-16T06:47:00.000-05:00Paul,I actually did something on corporates a few ...Paul,<BR/><BR/>I actually did something on corporates a few weeks ago and while generally correct it did not make much money. <BR/><BR/>Otherwise, the corporate market is rather diverse - like stocks - but there are few liquid tradables that cover the "market" for charting. My data provider is light on coverage to say the least.Michael Kahnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10668546349672243203noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7444476276287180978.post-75943642029909142742008-12-16T02:31:00.000-05:002008-12-16T02:31:00.000-05:00This is a very deceptive market. Anyone who calls ...This is a very deceptive market. Anyone who calls this market is Nostradamus reborn or a faker. How many times have we thought a trend has started, wave 4, and been burned. There is a good chance we are still in wave 3 down. Since late November we are in a narrow trading range triangle. Charting is not necessarily predictive until you see the trend or the wave pattern. I think the market is going down too, but I don't know if it starts tomorrow, or after a run up into the mid 900s. I think it could go down because we have not had capitulation yet, as you say. Rallies have been week in volume and breadth, and vix is still relatively high. Elliotwave has 11 patterns that they say are possible on the S&P 500. If it goes down, how far? When it hits bottom is it a U or V patten? There are so many "advisors" who only call the mid-trend and so admit they cannot time the market. That's ok. They are not really cheating anyone. I am not talking about you, just in general. You are asking yourself, is that all there is? Well, if you do better than the average type that you compare yourself to, or if you set your own standards and are true to them, then you don't have to answer to anyone. But I accept your capitulation as an indicator that we are close to mass capitulation and the end of the down leg of this bear market.Art Lamsteinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16831600136570372277noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7444476276287180978.post-40293448906539304512008-12-15T21:23:00.000-05:002008-12-15T21:23:00.000-05:00What I've been hearing for some time is, "Stocks a...What I've been hearing for some time is, "Stocks are priced for a recession and Bonds are priced for a depression." That's what I would like to see in a column, the technical analysis of corporate debt, particularly the high yield market.<BR/><BR/>How about it Michael, are you taking requests?<BR/><BR/>As always, Best Wishes.<BR/><BR/>PaulPaul O'Cuanahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06839773981900425359noreply@blogger.com