tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7444476276287180978.post320445464788994906..comments2023-11-20T05:15:20.137-05:00Comments on Behind the Headlines: The Market Has Already Discounted ItMichael Kahnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10668546349672243203noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7444476276287180978.post-72842895291004007792008-12-01T10:46:00.000-05:002008-12-01T10:46:00.000-05:00Ram,The shanghai index chart you cite shows a tren...Ram,<BR/><BR/>The shanghai index chart you cite shows a trendline that does not describe the action over that period of time. Therefore, I do not consider it a valid line to use. <BR/><BR/>Try drawing the line from the 1994 low instead.Michael Kahnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10668546349672243203noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7444476276287180978.post-67309077917003576452008-11-29T13:41:00.000-05:002008-11-29T13:41:00.000-05:00Michael,What do you make of the Shanghai index? Do...Michael,<BR/><BR/>What do you make of the Shanghai index? Does the 18-year trendline bear any significance to you?<BR/><BR/>http://headlinecharts.blog.com/4276241/Ramhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02640532547532698197noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7444476276287180978.post-91172186823048514642008-11-26T21:57:00.000-05:002008-11-26T21:57:00.000-05:00Speaking of sentiment extremes the 13 WMA of Inves...Speaking of sentiment extremes the 13 WMA of Investors Intelligence bulls over bulls plus bears has given its first Buy signal today since, I think, December 1994. The indicator has correlated well with intermediate-term rallies. The trick for me is to find a good entry point.Paul O'Cuanahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06839773981900425359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7444476276287180978.post-64954965057794900342008-11-26T12:52:00.000-05:002008-11-26T12:52:00.000-05:00The above comments are part of a sentiment extreme...The above comments are part of a sentiment extreme that has me thinking positively for a tradable bounce. Steve Sears, the Barron's options guy, pointed out that his contacts at institutions are still very bearish (video at barrons.com). I did not include this in my column today but it is hard to find a bull anywhere but in Omaha (as in the Oracle of...). Even my charting colleagues are talking trash.Michael Kahnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10668546349672243203noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7444476276287180978.post-37059525987109881572008-11-26T12:40:00.000-05:002008-11-26T12:40:00.000-05:00Based on the poll in the above comment, I vote for...Based on the poll in the above comment, I vote for the Dow to be something above 8000 - simply based on trend seen in the poll numbers. Look at how the percentage increases from Dow 7500 to 6000 (10% to 31%). This suggests that there is major bearishness in the market, and while we have seen technical indicators hardly causing a dent in the direction, simply looking at this poll suggests, we should be heading in the opposite direction. Also, I heard on PBS/NBR from some old (read experienced) market watcher that most bear markets bottomed in November. Not sure if this is true, but, I am willing to believe that a short term rally is occuring from the lows seen in November.<BR/><BR/>AmalanAmalanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12597327887568168370noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7444476276287180978.post-85313965888810728532008-11-26T06:25:00.000-05:002008-11-26T06:25:00.000-05:00Here's the current results from the Bespoke poll. ...Here's the current results from the Bespoke poll. <BR/> <BR/>What will the low of the Dow be between now and the end of 2009?<BR/> <BR/>Selection Votes <BR/>7,500 10% 88 <BR/>7,000 24% 202 <BR/>6,000 31% 265 <BR/>5,000 16% 137 <BR/>4,000 8% 65 <BR/>3,000 3% 23 <BR/>2,000 1% 8 <BR/>1,000 7% 56 <BR/> <BR/>844 votes total<BR/><BR/>Throwing out the outliers it suggest to a contrarian that the Dow has either bottomed or 5000 is the more likely target. <BR/><BR/>Due to my own 1974 bias I voted 7500. Given the times very scary indeed!patrick neidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05381083122153127803noreply@blogger.com