tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7444476276287180978.post9203675584493650088..comments2023-11-20T05:15:20.137-05:00Comments on Behind the Headlines: Golden CrossMichael Kahnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10668546349672243203noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7444476276287180978.post-57062823253185684642009-01-16T13:26:00.000-05:002009-01-16T13:26:00.000-05:00kiyoshi,no doubt there are better indicators, espe...kiyoshi,<BR/><BR/>no doubt there are better indicators, especially when we consider how fast the early moves usually are. That's a lot of cash left on the table for a slow system like the 200/50. <BR/><BR/>but no one indicator should ever be used alone.<BR/><BR/><BR/>What do you use?Michael Kahnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10668546349672243203noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7444476276287180978.post-83932138099472570202009-01-16T10:32:00.000-05:002009-01-16T10:32:00.000-05:00Kiyoshi: any hints?Kiyoshi: any hints?PD Quighttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00454197219107241444noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7444476276287180978.post-47614583702311699982009-01-16T00:22:00.000-05:002009-01-16T00:22:00.000-05:00Hey Michael,Bingo! I am also telling my clients t...Hey Michael,<BR/><BR/>Bingo! I am also telling my clients that THE BEAR has at least 4-6 months of life, at a minimum and perhaps another 18 months.<BR/><BR/>There are superior indicators than the 50/200 X in my opinion however.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11489600754084649535noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7444476276287180978.post-75375605052740978422009-01-15T15:48:00.000-05:002009-01-15T15:48:00.000-05:00I only act after COB on Friday and also use a (60,...I only act after COB on Friday and also use a (60,3,3) stochastic on the weekly that has to break 50 to confirm a crossover signal. These kept me out of a whipsaw by the skin of my teeth.PD Quighttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00454197219107241444noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7444476276287180978.post-23842816586793465172009-01-15T13:59:00.000-05:002009-01-15T13:59:00.000-05:00the 13/34 parameter set seems to be more responsiv...the 13/34 parameter set seems to be more responsive. Did you get whipsawed in July 2006? That's when the 50/200 came within a fraction of signaling a sell.Michael Kahnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10668546349672243203noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7444476276287180978.post-26971554198138549032009-01-15T11:25:00.000-05:002009-01-15T11:25:00.000-05:00To short, or not to short? That is the question. W...To short, or not to short? That is the question. Whether it be nobler to suffer the slings and arrows of outrageous bear traps, or to stand aside in cash--yet again--while new lows are made?<BR/><BR/>As a follow-up Michael, what's your take on the medium term at this point? Straight down to <741 or bounce and then down?<BR/><BR/>I'm a mid-term trader (I take macro positions based on weekly charts and mostly on stochastic 20 upward crosses (buy) and 80 downward crosses (sell) augmented by MACD and RSI divergences. Pretty standard stuff. Based on this methodoly. right now the weekly SP is still in a buy, but it's looking like it wants to roll over.<BR/><BR/>I've been in cash since Nov. 20 when I got bear trapped at SP 810. I went short after letting all the 849 stops get cleared out. The boys still scalped my stop an hour later on the way back up. I've been frozen since then.PD Quighttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00454197219107241444noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7444476276287180978.post-90511945876265370992009-01-15T11:07:00.000-05:002009-01-15T11:07:00.000-05:00I have recommended to my family and friends who do...I have recommended to my family and friends who do not follow the markets--but who do have 401ks and IRAs--that a simple tool to define cash (or short) vs. investing periods is the 13/34 EMA crossover on the weekly S&P500 chart. It got us out in late December 2007 and has kept us in cash since. Now if I had only left my QID position up for that last 13 months I'd be a lot better off than I am after trying to optimize. This past year has just been too damn hard for non-pros who can't watch the markets intraday...and even for those that do, I guess.PD Quighttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00454197219107241444noreply@blogger.com