Monday, May 4, 2015

Real Estate Put Aways

I just read this on MarketWatch:
There’s a new boom in the housing market, and in many cities, this bubble is even bigger than the last, warns Wolf Richter of the Wolf Street blog. He explains that home ownership — the bedrock of the American dream — has been tumbling as houses get snapped up as investments. In fact, the proportion of owner-occupant buyers fell to a multiyear low of 63.2%, Richter said. What’s more, it’s not the “smart money” that’s feasting on real estate. The institutions are getting out of the game and leaving it to the “mom-and-pop” types. “
This reminds me of my days on the municipal bond desk at Merrill Lynch. Those were the days when even a peon like me was wearing blue shirts with white collars and multi-glitz suspenders under my Gorsart suit.

Traders traded with each other and tried to offload inventory on the buy side, which included retail. When bonds finally got "put away" to end investors we knew it was time to move on to the next hot dollar bond issue. When investors had them in their hands, even in block size, the bonds were finally distributed in small enough lots and we knew only dribs and drabs would reappear at any given time to "flood" the market. Flood really meant trickle.

In the real estate graf above it seems that all of the real estate buying has gone to traders, now known as flippers, and very little is getting put away. That means a whole lot of inventory is out there in need of getting sold.

Supply high
Demand low

Get the picture?

Thursday, December 4, 2014

If you wanna be my source

I'll tell you what I want,
What I really, really want.....

I want you to feed me interesting things about the market, relevant to charting and technical analysis, that my readers will want to read.

What? You should do the work?

Well, yeah. If you knew how many solicitations and emails journalists get every day you would understand that we do not have the time, desire or sometimes the knowledge to pour over your missives. Most of you cannot coherently write your way out of a paper bag, too.

I was at an investor conference recently and made some great contacts. Many attendees and presenters had great information generating products that could give me an early warning on changing market conditions. Perfect!

I exchanged email addresses and twitter handles. I sent them queries. I got some responses and most required me to set up accounts (that's fine) and then look around for what I wanted.

Uh, no.

From my point of view, yeah, I guess I need to do some work to create well researched stories. But let's talk about it from your point of view. You want your name in the media. Or you want to create buzz for your products so qualified leads will head over to your website.

Sounds simple, right? SO WHY DON'T YOU FOLLOW UP WITH ME or any other journalist who can make your dreams come true. And why don't you get your marketing person working on something created just for me? Make me feel special, dammit!

No, I am not the PR god and no I am not a big shot name like Cramer or Abelson (RIP). But I do have multiple tens of thousands of qualified readers twice per week, every week of the year.

Journalists have to write  - A LOT. I put out five newsletters, two columns and two articles every week, not to mention a monthly column, a weekly webinar and the occasional interview. I need stuff to write about. And so does every other journalist.

Do you think they know you exist? They have their go-to guys on the topics they hit every once in a while and so do I. But we all want more. We want a story to fall into our laps every once in a while and that is where you come in.

Hey Mike, the XYZ indicator we created just signalled a major change
(Not RSI or MACD. I have those on my screen already)

Hey Mike, the number of carpenter benches purchased just tripled. The economy is humming. Now that is different!

Hey Mike, gun permits are skyrocketing. Umm, OK, buy guns stocks.

Tell me something I don't know, that is relevant and is interesting. I guarantee you will see your name in my column. Do it twice (after a reasonable period of time) and you become my go-to guy/gal.

OK, rant over. Time for a drink.