Funny how Spoos rallied before the news

Either data services are FUBAR in terms of how they report data and time or a lot of people knew what the jobs report would say just before it came out. You make the call.

Any way the wind blows II

The latest AAII sentiment survey is out and my have AAII members changed their tune! To quote the mailing:

"Bullish sentiment of individual investors rose 10.1 percentage points to 30.8% in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. While the increase in bullish sentiment was dramatic, bullish sentiment remains below its long-term average of 39%.

The improvement in bullish sentiment comes on the heels of a strong stock market advance during the first trading day of September. Investor sentiment is often influenced by recent stock market action."

Influenced by recent action? Ya think?

It looks like for this to be of any value anymore it needs to be smoothed but at least a 3-period average.

Who drives a Fiat?

You never give me your money
You only give me your funny paper
and in the middle of negotiations
you break down
- The Beatles (hat tip Josh Schneck)

This is a picture of the dollar index. Looks like a bear flag to me. Is it any wonder gold barely fell on a day when stocks soared?  Fiat currencies - funny paper.

This is the euro index. Think the euro index should be the exact opposite of the dollar index? Think again, Poindexter. This one looks like a bear flag, too, albeit smaller.


Out of college, money spent
See no future, pay no rent
All the money's gone, nowhere to go
- same Beatles tune

Frank Sinatra CMT

That's life, that's what all the people say.
You're riding high in April,
Shot down in May
- Frank Sinatra (That's Life)

How did he know?  Market peaks in May, Flash crash in May.

(hat tip CNBC)

Cisco breaks

The Cisco Kid was a friend of mine
He drink whiskey, Poncho drink the wine

- War (1972)

Analysts looking for tech to save the day are drinking kool-aid, not whiskey.

This chart shows Cisco Systems breaking down below another support.

The outlaws had us pinned down at the fort
Cisco came in blastin', drinkin' port

Kind of makes you think of Gene Wilder in Blazing Saddles (the drunken Waco Kid)

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Mo Retail

In today's column, I followed up on retailers and how their stocks react poorly to good earnings. Expectations were set way too high and needed to be re-focused. That means lower prices.

One stock I cut out before editing was TJX. Here is what I wrote but never submitted:

Off-price apparel and home fashions retailer, TJX Companies (TJX), owner of the Marshall's and TJ Maxx chains, reported better than expected earnings on August 17and raised its outlook. Its stock barely moved and now sits on a very important support level below where it was before releasing its good news.

What that means is even a good earner is now trading below where it was before the good news came out. That is a rejection of the news as not being good enough.  Support at 40.25 seems mighty critical to me and it closed at 40.56 today. I am not telling you what to do if it is broken but look at the chart and you tell me.