Wednesday, February 3, 2010

Trim Tabs expects a bomb

Re-post. The quote was missing!

I got this from a corporate communications release this morning.

=== TrimTabs using real-time numbers estimates that job losses for January were 105,000, much higher than Wall Street expectations that the BLS on Friday will report 5,000 January job losses. TrimTabs warns the BLS estimates are highly inaccurate because of incomplete survey data and illogical seasonal adjustments, among other things. Which means government policy, business and
investment decisions based on these numbers are useless, and in fact, dangerous.

I am way out of my comfort zone with this sort of economic stuff but it has the potential to create some disappointed bulls.

Monday, February 1, 2010

Dead Cat Bounce

Yes, once again I'll trot out the old joke that most investors prefer the dead analyst bounce but I digress.

Today's Barron's Online column is about a part of the equities landscape that got hit particularly hard. But after the damage it became very, very oversold, as was the broad market. So with today's ISM report showing the economy expanding like it did in August 2004 (don't you love economic wonks?), it was no surprise to see the market rally.

But as they say, if you drop a dead cat from a high enough perch it will bounce. Check out this chart of US Steel (not in today's column).

Meeee-owwwwww!