Tuesday, March 2, 2010

Russell Kisses Old High

In the previous blog post, a reader commented that volume is lousy and he/she does not even follow it anymore. I sort of agree because we don't put volume in the bank. We also cannot fault anyone for making money when a stock goes up without volume. Lack of volume did not make it a bad trade.

So in this low volume environment, we can rejoice in the fact that the Russell 2000 just kissed its old highs! Break out the sham-pain.

The problem with low volume is not that the market cannot keep going up. It is that it has nothing to protect it from even the most minor of shocks. Investors will flee - as in run for the hills - at the sniff of bad news.

It is not where I want to play as I don't get enough sleep as it is.

Monday, March 1, 2010

Topsy Turvey

Yes, AIG and Fannie/Freddy were back at the window looking for more handouts. Nothing topsy or turvey there. Greece and California were on default watch and nothing new there, either.

But now the British Pound is in free fall and the UK credit rating is actually in peril. So is Japan! To put it another way, two G-7 nations are in trouble, too.

But the stock market went up! Well, not Chile as could be expected but the Chilean currency soared. Now that is topsy and turvey - especially since copper closed well off its highs.

Economic data were up in the USA, helping to push stocks up along with an AIG divestiture. Really? Up? The ISM was actually down this month although it was still above the 50 market to indicate good stuff. You can see my skepticism.

A non-financial TV commentator said today that if Japan gets downgraded then they will sell US bonds to raise cash. They are, after all, the largest holder of our debt. And all that supply will compete with all of our new borrowing to push rates higher - way higher.

Good thing the US dollar is going up. Again - oh wait, it is all relative to the others. What is not relative? Gold. Think about it - even though the dollar went up today, gold held its ground.

Call me Midas (the king, not the muffler).