The Decade Ahead

Perhaps Carl Swenlin and I think alike and I will take that as a compliment. This afternoon, he published one of his periodic articles on his site, the data packed DecisionPoint.com, showing his long, long-term historical view of the stock market and how we have to understand the big picture when acting in the hear and now.

This morning, some nine hours earlier, I referenced a chart I published back in 2002 for a Nightly Business Report interview. It was virtually the same chart! Both showed that we are in a secular bear market now and for several years to come (Swenlin said 10-15, I am much on the low side of that range). When you see the charts, you get a good idea of the big picture.

Will it change you attitudes towards the stock market? Only if you trade. If you are a buy and hope type of investor then your world - as you have already seen --- twice this decade ---- has been rocked. Your time horizon has been reduced from years to months and while that certainly is not close to day trading it is a switch. You will have to be an active investor whether you like it or not. No, not in and out every week but cognizant of the fact that at some point you will have to step away from the market.

Carl's chart with link to the full story - as always a very good read.

http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/081031_lt.html

My chart from 2002

FWIW - my chart was created with Athena Charting on a BridgeStation. Both gone like the dodo bird.

Fear Factor again

I keep coming back to this topic (not on the blog - yet) but gold coins are in short supply while the price of gold futures languishes. This seems too strange to be true but apparently it is. You can buy all the gold you want from your friendly neighborhood futures broker but I wonder how delivery is going. We won;t really know until December, won't we?

Anyway, here is a bullion dealers website as of Thursday (credit to Robert Minkowsky for finding it). It's web address is http://www.ajpm.com/htbin/gold.cgi

You may have to click on it to blow it up but check out the red letters - SOLD OUT. And it is the smaller coins that are gone, too. Is the little guy panicking? Hoarding gold because he does not believe that the bailout package will 1) work or 2) not cause inflation?

I don't know that answer so if there are any coin dealers reading this please comment.

OK conspiracy theorists, check out this video but go get a new pair of skivvies first.

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=1954933468700958565&hl=es

Nah, it's another bogus Internet tale but it does get you thinking about what if it really were true. I cannot imagine anyone in government making a decision like that not being impeached and then deported to Tora Bora to catch a bunker buster.

But that does not stop me from wanting to own more gold - real gold, not the paper stuff.