Public Servants - not

Rant against what our government has become - local edition.

I pay just about all my bills online and earlier this month attempted to pay my local real estate taxes. I do this four times per year without incident but apparently I missed hitting the final button to actually submit the payment. You know the kind of website that says "hit this button" and you do but then it gives you one more screen and in tiny letters says you have to hit the other button?   How many of you fall victim to that?

So after a few days of not seeing the payment in the bank account, I look at the website. It says payment rejected with date, time and amount. They knew I tried.

I call the town and they said a lot of people do that. Red flag! If a lot of people do that shouldn't they change it? After all, it is supposed to cut out calls like the one I made. But no, this is public service and if it ain't broke, sort of, then don't touch it.

I plead my case saying I always do this and while I cannot confirm I made no mistake I show how I have been doing this successfully for years.

"Sorry, you have to pay a late fee. "

"OK, can't you waive it? You have proof I actually tried, in good faith, to pay on time. And if so many people have problems then the website is unclear."

"Sorry, it is a state law that we cannot waive fees."

"Excuse me? A state law dictating to the town what the town has to charge for town taxes?

Yes, it is a law.

OK, can you tell me what that law is so I can see it?

I do not know (she was only a clerk, not a boss or lawyer). I will have someone call you.

Yeah right, I thought. Two days later, I call back.The same person answered and was very nice. She said she checked with the deputy receiver of taxes who said, and I quote, "We do not have to tell you what the law is."

My jaw dropped.

"Are you kidding? Do you know how this sounds?"

True, you do not have to tell me but isn't that sort of what customer service is all about?  You do not have to flush to toilet either but it is the right thing to do.

She apologized and I told here I would not bother her any more.

Needless to say, I am now going to contact a few real estate lawyer friends of mine.

1 - why is the state telling the town what to do?
2 - what is the big deal to tell me what the law is or at least how to find out?

I am not going into the "I pay your salary" rant because that is irrelevant. What is relevant is the attitude that government does not have to answer to the people. My cable company pulled a stunt like that on me and I switched to a different provider. Not so many options in a government monopoly.

Naz vs financial bubble

Many analysts like analogs and I admit I like them too. In writing a recent Barron's Online column on financials, I looked at how that bubble compared to the one before it and saw something interesting. Unfortunately, it was left on the cutting room floor. Here is what I wrote fleshed out a bit more.

Before looking at the chart, I have to tell you that the time frames do not line up. In other words, the tech./Nasdaq collapse in 2000 took about 2 1/2 years and the financial collapse in 2007 took only 1 1/2, both rounded a lot. Therefore, in order to get the ebb and flow to match, the data for one of them is stretched to fit the other.

The point is not to say they are following the exact timing but rather they are following the same structure. Is this how bubbles work? I don't know and honestly I am too busy trying to earn a living (journalism deadlines) than pursue this all the way.

But it is interesting.

So what is in the chart? Basically, the financial bubble recovery, based on what the Nasdaq did, "should" have already peaked. I'll blame the government for prolonging this thing with QE/TARP and all the other money they threw at the problem instead of letting the free market clean its own house.

Think about the broad market back at new highs. What 2007-2009 bear market? But not so for the financials with only a Fibonacci 38.2% (closer to 30%) retracement.

After the 2000-2002 bear, the Nasdaq in 2007 only retraced a 38.2% (actually closer to 45% but it ruins the flow). Where was the broad market? At or near new highs and saying "what bear market?"

The bubble markets retraced less than half while the rest got it all back.

Under this scenario - without any true statistical backing - it is time for the financials and the market as a whole to top out again.

Wouldn't it be cool to see the current bubble - bonds - follow the same script? If they do, then there is a lot of pain ahead for the next two years.