Monday, April 21, 2008

The Global Build

In today's column I covered a few heavy construction stocks with nice bullish patterns. Rather than think about buying them as anything more than bear market rally plays, let's think about what that might mean for the long-term.

Specifically, if the global build is for real and the fundamentalists and economists think it is a secular trend then we need to own global markets for the long-term. We have to be able to ride out volatility and be willing to take some drawdowns but we Americans must think outside the border. As long as the dollar doesn't go from 100 to 200 yen anytime soon (or back below par in the euro) then we should still see the rest of the world buying American - products, services, companies, real estate, you name it.

Sigh. I can make money but probably have to learn another language before I retire.

5 comments:

Home Broker said...

Hello. This post is likeable, and your blog is very interesting, congratulations :-). I will add in my blogroll =). If possible gives a last there on my blog, it is about the Home Broker, I hope you enjoy. The address is http://home-broker-brasil.blogspot.com. A hug.

Quick Takes Pro said...

Thanks for the hug.

I'm sure all of us here would like to know about how Brasil is growing from an insider. The EWZ Brazil ETF broke out today!

Anonymous said...

Hello Michael. Thank you for your excellent TA thoughts! I have've been promoting your "Getting Technical" column to thousands of retail investors here in the Czech Republic through my own newsletter - so you have a bunch of followers over here. :-)

Thank you!

Petr

Quick Takes Pro said...

Petr,

Thanks for the promotion and nice comments. My experience is that technical analysis is rather popular in your country.

How about a web address to see a sample of your newsletter?

Anonymous said...

Michael, you can download the sample at the following URL http://www.mediafire.com/?b5jntwnmxgg

This is the very first newsletter in which I introduced your work to my readership. The feedback was amazing and I was asked by literally hundreds of readers to follow and comment on all of your publicly available analysis.

You won't understand much of what's written in there, as it is written in Czech. However, the headlines are in English and the layout is pretty self-explanatory.

The newsletter is published daily (Mon - Fri) and it predominantly covers the market and economic developments in the USA. According to my readers - it's their favorite morning reading. Unlike the very few investment portals that are in existence in the Czech Republic and whose comments regarding the USA are just a mere translation from Bloomberg or Reuters, I try to provide a simple-to-understand yet oppiniated commentary on the developments in the USA. These are crucial to us Europeans, as our (European) markets have no life of its own and mimic the US markets. The feature section usually deals with my own fundamental analysis (corporate and economic) as I am not a technician (though I am quickly learning now).

Your work is always appropriately referenced and URL links are provided (that being barrons.com, your blog or marketwatch.com). You may notice that your name is distorted here and there in the newsletter. This is just how the Czech language works and not a mistake.

My newsletter is not a commercial undertaking. (I am a former hedge fund analyst who got a lucky break a year ago, at the same time lost all his illusions regarding the investment industry and who has been on a personal strike ever since :-)) The whole newsletter started as a correspondence between me and a few of my friends and then quickly grew via "word of mouth" into what it is today.

Your analysis are the most concise, easy-to-understand and reliable TA thoughts I found on the web and they perfectly complement my newsletter for the TA part. They became a permanent feature of the "market commentary" section.

I hope your slightly bearish outlook prevails in the markets and the S&P doesn't pop above the range, as I would hate to go long in this ridiculously expensive market - given my fundamental assumptions regarding the future. Forget the housing market and the credit crises. This is peanuts compared to the synthetic mess / inflation hell that Mr. Bernanke has been cooking for us!

Again, thank you very much for your work that keeps us educated and prepared.

PS: I guess - in case the S&P does go above 1406 - I'd better subscribe to your paid services, right?

Best regards,

Petr