Is it me or is it assumed that crude oil will hit 150 (I say this a lot)? Nothing else is assumed and analysts have stopped saying that the fundamentals support a price in the 80s. All we need now is for Newsweek or the Economist to run a cover story about a world with $200 oil and that would sucker in the last bull.
Yes, we were quite early in thinking it was time for a correction last week but the higher it goes the deeper the correction should be when it finally gets here. Fortunately, we have not been fighting the trend by shorting stocks or oil itself.
Don’t get me wrong; we still think that the oil bull market is far from over. It’s just that there comes a point where the risk outweighs the reward and for us that was in the area of 117. We know – too much left on the table but that’s what happens in a bubble. We will be ready to buy when the market makes its cleansing move and all of the sudden the pundits are back to “valuing” oil at 80.
Just for clarity, we do not think we’ll see less than 100 but there will be a trendline rising to about 110 by the summer that we like.