Tuesday, August 5, 2008

The Pit Bull of Economics

I was interviewed on a radio show this morning by a guy who fancies himself as the "contrarian economist." I'll leave his name and show out of this but let's just say you will recognize him when you see him on TV.

He was more like the "argumentative economist" and the stronger these types argue their points the more I know they are wrong. For starters, he berated me for saying the dollar was weak. True, it is up for a few weeks - sort of - but it is still in a six-year bear market. OK, perhaps some currencies were falling relative to the greenback but overall vs. the currencies that matter the dollar has been crushed and is still not in a bull market.

A subscriber of mine, whom I respect, has argued that it is on the verge of a breakout and I'd agree. But "verge" is not "actual" so let's give the bear the benefit of the doubt. And also, let's keep in mind that the breakout would be through a short-term trendline, not the bear market line.

Anyway, this contrarian of manners was arguing about falling commodities, the stimulus package and rising dollar. Of course, wiser economists than either of us have opined that the 27-year high in inflation expectations ate up the stimulus. He also said, "you media types" during his argument, which is rather funny since he is on more media than me.

I also mentioned that the stock market does not necessarily bottom when commodities peak. It may happen but we have to be sure commodities have actually peaked. They are under severe pressure, for sure, but I'd like to see long-term trendline is gold and oil that are actually broken first.

It's a bear market no matter what the gentile host thinks. I am just glad that my corporate parent has black balled his show from ever seeing our content again. Larry Kudlow may have strong opinions and argue them vigorously against his guests but he is a gentleman about it and always treated me with respect. This mook, who asked me if I ever heard of Brazil, is going to wallow in the third tier forever.


Anonymous said...

You have loyal readers for a reason. I know I'd never waste my time on this radio fellow. They come and go.

Your subscriber's rationale for breakout interest me. Likewise I don't see a breakout from the dollar bear market (even though M2 has been steady for a while). I see the dollar in a trading range where some of it's recent strength has to be given up.

Anonymous said...

Ouch!!! Mr. Larry Goldilock! Hey Mike, don't waste your time with Mr. DrillDrillDrill.........


Art Sindlinger said...

brilliant use of 'mook'

Anonymous said...

I don't watch TV or listen to the radio (web surfing doesn't leave enough time), but I understand that respectful exchanges of ideas are rarer than they used to be. Maybe the Sunday morning talk shows started it--they used to discuss the week's news by taking turns, respectfully disagreeing, suggesting alternative interpretations...you know, talking like civilized people. Shouting, interrupting, and insulting somehow became more the norm. I say: hooray for you! Don't stoop. Take your thoughtful analysis somewhere else. I've enjoyed reading you in Barron's and wherever else I find you, and you don't deserve this guy, whoever he was.