No Dow 10K, so now what?

In early December, I put out a framework for the Dow reaching 10,000 before rolling over for its next death dive. http://quicktakespro.blogspot.com/2008/12/bear-market-rally-framework.html

Well, this month it got to 9000 before keeling over, much to my chagrin. I did learn a valuable lesson about expecting trends to behave in a gigunda trading range that we are in and expect to be in for another 6-18 months. That lesson is that trends to not last long.

A rousing Duh! for me!

Here is an updated chart with a different type of look. I'll skip to the ending here - the answer is sideways and bumpy.

The problem with this chart is that it does not jibe with my multi-month trading range view. But not every triangle or pennant pattern actually breaks out one way or the other. Sometimes they break on just the passage of time and that is a meaningless move. Breakouts must have vertical movement and hopefully some volume.

So what does it mean? Probably a whole lot of nothing for a while and then a trip to the top or bottom of the trading range (7500-9700) and then a trip in the other direction and so forth. I am with the survey (see right of this page) and look for a pogo stick market for a while.

If you did not vote in the survey, please do. It ends in two days (total one week).