Now that I put the blog back to its regular color it may be hard to see the poll numbers on the right side of this page. Here they are in a nutshell:
Where will the S&P 500 top out in the next three months? Out of 123 responses it was a dead heat among 1200 or more, 1150, 1100 and "its there now." There is absolutely no consensus or even leaning among responders to the poll.
As for the next question - After the above, how deep will the next fall be? We had 104 responses and it was 38% for "respectable correction like July." That's on the order of 10% using round numbers.
28% went for "scary correction" and that is take to be on the order of 20% from wherever it tops.
What was interesting was the rather significant percentage of people looking for new bear market lows. Not enough to say anything contrarian but there are people out there that think this is the mother of all sucker's rallies.
What does it all mean for the buy, sell or hold decision. Of course, this is a tiny sample size but it does give us an idea for the mood out there. And it is not of much help in determining the buy, sell or hold decision.
It was a good try. Let's see how the mood changes when the expected 10% correction does finally hit. I bet it will sour in a hurry.