Thursday, November 5, 2009

Solar Winds are Blowing

There was an interesting discussion this week in a technical analysis chat room. First, read this quote from a post by Philip J. McDonnell.

"There is a large hole in the Sun's Corona which is emitting solar wind in our general direction. It should reach Earth on Friday Nov. 6. The chance of geomagnetic storm activity is now at 30% in high latitudes and 15% at mid latitudes."

This is not fiction but real science. What may be construed as fiction, although it is not, is the connection it has to the stock market. McDonnell then posted an abstract to the Atlanta Fed's study on this topic. I have excerpted it here.

Playing the Field: Geomagnetic Storms and the Stock Market
Anna Krivelyova, Boston College
Cesare Robotti, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

A large body of psychological research has shown that geomagnetic storms have a profound effect on people's moods, and, in turn, people's moods have been found to be related to human behavior, judgments and decisions about risk. An important finding of this literature is that people often attribute their feelings and emotions to the wrong source, leading to incorrect judgments. Specifically, people affected by geomagnetic storms may be more inclined to sell stocks on stormy days because they incorrectly attribute their bad mood to negative economic prospects rather than bad environmental conditions.

This paper provides evidence of substantially higher returns around the world during periods of quiet geomagnetic activity.

Interesting. The conclusion is that you might want to take a little off the table today.


monroe said...

I was disappointed by this post. Is this another way of saying that TA does not work? I would have rather read your thoughts on what Thursday's big advance meant for the trend. Is the trend broken?

Quick Takes Pro said...

This post was about a natural phenomenon that has psychological implications leading to certain behaviors with regard to risk assets. It had nothing to do with traditional TA.

But it is one item that could affect your portfolio as the sub-title of this blog says.