Friday, March 9, 2012

Sponge Worthy

Over the past week or so, I have had precious little to say about the markets, save for the one day of excitement Tuesday. I even resorted to running a long-term chart on the front page of the newsletter today where I usually rant about market events and offer up some less emotional observations.

Since I have not blogged in two days I felt the need to do so. But about what? Greece? Boring. Jobs? Same old excitement over something that is quite sad. Market movements? Zzzzzzzzz.  Then Seinfeld came to mind and I thought I'd write about not having anything to write. No soup for you! Yada, yada, yada.

Then it hit me. I had to figure out if something was sponge worthy. Did anything that happened this week deserve me spending time writing and more importantly you spending time reading? What was worthy of our limited supply of intellectual resources?

Well, gold found a floor and even rallied Friday as the dollar soared. Crude oil successfully tested its breakout. Cotton got a temporary bump on India export news. If I were to write about futures then coffee plunging to new lows would really make my day.  Maybe that's why Starbucks wanted to invade my K-cup maker.

No, that's not it. What might be worthy is the idea many people have that all dips should be bought. About the inevitability of higher prices because Greece has (another) deal, jobs seem to be growing and the fundamentals of oil say it should not be trading where it is. As soon as the fear subsides - after all, nobody is going to actually attack anybody (eyeroll) - then oil can settle back down and the economy gets another boost.

Tuesday was indeed a wake-up all. Hey, stocks can actually go down!  But it seems that traders never met a dip they did not like this year and sentiment rages bullish. The current trend is being extrapolated out into the future as if it must happen. My fellow bears are mighty quiet these days.

Now that is sponge worthy.

2 comments:

Fast trader said...

I dont think markets are that ddisordered. There are specific quant models that work to give you a heads up on the markets esp those in the forex markets. The forex markets move before the equity markets and hence if you are able to look their and understand movement of AUDJPY etc. then you have a heads up. You will be surprised how accurate you will be.
Yesterday it was pretty clear that once the markets broke 1351, it was headed well and truly to test its prev highs. It did that!
http://capital3x.com/think-tank/newtons-fifth-law-markets-can-defy-gravity/
Thanks
Ripper

Fast trader said...

I dont think markets are that ddisordered. There are specific quant models that work to give you a heads up on the markets esp those in the forex markets. The forex markets move before the equity markets and hence if you are able to look their and understand movement of AUDJPY etc. then you have a heads up. You will be surprised how accurate you will be.
Yesterday it was pretty clear that once the markets broke 1351, it was headed well and truly to test its prev highs. It did that!
C3X
Thanks
Ripper