The news today is bad, bad, bad on all fronts. Here are some real headlines:
• Corporate layoffs near 7-year high,
• Job losses may hit 30-year high
• Services contract at worst pace ever
• Bernanke says efforts so far have failed to slow the foreclosure rate
• New orders for manufactured goods falls 5.1% in October, the biggest decline since 2000
• Plunging orders for durable goods
• OJ gets 15 years
OK, that last one if for comic relief. But hasn't the market already discounted this? After all it already crashed in September and October. The market saw it coming, didn't it?
And the risk now is for some sort of positive surprise. OK again, today's jobs numbers were not positive - at all - but "darkest before the dawn" and all that. When was the last time job loss resulted in a recession? It is always the other way around. Business gets stinky and they lay off workers - in that order.
Look at retail. Lousy news Thursday and the sector closed up while the market closed down. And as I write this after lunch Friday it is up again (the Dow is down 100).
The market did indeed sell off this morning on the jobs report but it has come back significantly. Premature to declare victory but this market is getting stronger, not weaker. No, not a bull market but a tradable rally. I fully expect another bearish few weeks after that.