With no apologies to Superman, this rally is giving us that up, up and away feeling but with a kryptonite chaser. In other words, I am FAR from complacent despite my view that Dow 10, 000 is coming. And if we get there then I'll be cashing in the longs and putting on the shorts.
Contrarian contrarians - those who look at all the other contrarians and take the opposite view - which ends up being the view of the masses, think there are too many people looking for that rally so it won't happen. The masses look at the news and say the economy is going to hell in a handbasket.
1-Show me a majority of people/analysts/newsletter writers that are looking for a rally. Only then will I agree to fade them. Right now, the latest AAII survey has about 47% bears. Some majority of bulls, right?
2- The news is already baked into the market. Why else would a record number of job losses - a surprisingly high number, at that - result in a market rally? Trade the news and you are trading what the market did nine months ago.
So, the market can rally. This is not a bottom call - although I do think we've had it - but rather a call to make some cash before the opportunity dries up. But don't be a pig. Sell too early rather than too late.