Tuesday, August 18, 2009

This time its different

No, not the most dangerous words in investing but conditions at the current decline are different than they were at previous one or two day pullbacks. Bad news is finally being punished. Volume finally swelled on the dip and dried up on the bounce. Pundits are all over the tube being very bullish. Current fundamentals are being dismissed and while the market is looking forward to what will be we cannot ignore what is.

But this market is not healed yet. Bubbles seem to be reflating ever so slightly as the villains survive to create new weapons of financial mass destruction. And I am not talking about Goldman Sachs and the boys. Ford is still making, well, Fords. GM is still making GMs. and AIG is still breathing at all, which is just not a good thing for anyone who belives in teh invisible hand of the market.


William said...

Bubbles may indeed be reflating all over the place; the government has been handing out free money to banks, and instead of lending it to small business they've been letting their hedge funds speculate with the money in the equity and commodity markets. Demand for crude and commodities are down, yet someone is bidding them up with no underlying demand...

Ramu said...

Crude inventories are down. Not sure if demand is really down. Its possible that hedge funds are pushing the indices higher. But why can't they do the opposite? Short it. Looks like market is trying to tell us something. Last bear market, housing came out roaring and continued up for 3 yrs. Maybe this time, its stocks with so much of free money. I wont be surprised if we see any 2000 like movement upwards (yes irrationally but no body seem to care for correction). Resiliency shown again today. Mike, I think bad news is still not getting punished.

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