Monday, August 3, 2009

Broke(Green)Back Mountain

That was sort of the working title for today's column. I am glad the editor came up with something better, even if more boring.

The dollar is looking might sickly, isn't it? If the European banks are in better shape than everyone thought (witness HSBC and Barclay's earnings not showing the Grim Reaper on the Board of Directors) and four more US banks failed last Friday then perhaps there is reason why capital is fleeing this country.

We all thought that global stimulus packages would inflate all economies and therefore, since all forex pairs are, well, pairs it suggests that inflation and currency shifts should all cancel out. But one look at the greenback and ugh!

I am harking back to last year when I blogged about being mistreated during a radio interview when I talked about the weak dollar. (this is the link). I am sure that host was twirling his pointy mustache (actually, he does not have one but I am thinking of Snidely Whiplash) when the dollar rallied hard to the high 80s. But now, I have a warm bowl of crow for him to chow.

Last year's financial crisis caused a stampede to the dollar and the perceived safety of the USA. Now that risk appetites are back, the flight to safety is over and so is the temporary vacation in bull-land.

Are you listening Washington? A falling dollar can help exporters for only so long.

4 comments:

Daniel Kwiat said...

Michael,

Your take on the dollar would seem to be at odds with your take on equities, as they have worked inversely. And I think your bearishness on equities will prove the right call--and the Euro (and commodities) will correct against both the dollar and the JPY.

Socrates said...

My guess is that the DXY is completing a 5-wave down formation. At this point there are positive divergences at a number of oscillators. Therefore I believe its only a matter of time (not much though...) before we see a rise in the DXY, and a fall in stocks...

Quick Takes Pro said...

Daniel,

I agree that the dollar and stocks have been moving inversely but that is not always the case. I think we have emerged from the panic period where they two act as opposites.

Quick Takes Pro said...

Socrates,

Where do you start wave 1?

Note, I just said the greenback was sick and not that it will continue to plummet My friend Rick Bensignor was just on CNBC saying that the percentage bulls was down to 3% and that is a contrarian's dream