The recovery seems real enough but it is not organic. Nothing seems to have changed since the financial crisis and the next bubble is blowing somewhere.
I am still on the road so posts here are short and infrequent. I'll try to comment on my column after it is written later today.
5 comments:
The economy can barely produce a job and housing is very weak. Imagine what will happen when the chemical fertilizer is taken away.
Paul O'Cuana
Can't resist to say this...Mike last time I asked your opinion when Market was 5% below (QQQ at 46.3). I mentioned, can the next stop be 48.3 and the next one be 50.5ish. You mentioned not to chase the market. Agreed. But 4-5% is a lot to miss on. Its not even sideways move. The market (with earnings coming in soon) looks like ready for another MELT UP. ARE YOU IN A STATE OF DENIAL? I am sure you will be right in the next 6 months/1 year but given the market behavior (and your last year's comment that we have to change with changing market climate) maybe its worth taking a Bullish stand until proven wrong than being a bear taking a hit everyday. Personally I think at some point this year..this will be proved a v-shaped economy. About volume, looks like option trading volume has jumped quite a bit from previous years. So, maybe people have become smarter to buy calls/puts than the underlying securities.
ramu,
(said with friendly tone) If you had access to my newsletter you would see we are long many positions and short very few. Do not think what you see in a free blog is everything I do.
Ramu, I am on Michael's side this time, although I mostly disagreed with his posted view on the market here(Michael, I have to say that you ve been sounding bearish here, though you mentioned you are long many positions in your newsletter)
People take advice and make their own decisions, this has been one of the greatest bull market run and it hasn’t been too hard to play with, since governments all over the world said that they would print a substantial amount of money last year.
Ramu, if you know the rule, doing what is right till you are proven wrong, then you may not need advice, people who ask for advice because they are unsure or fear they may make wrong decisions, eg. Fear that the fundamentals do not support the rising market, I find that it is this FEAR that the financial media and blogosphere continues to pump into the minds of investors, stops traders from profiting, but fear is good, it is the main driver for a bull market, if you are waiting for absolute good news in order to get rid of your fear, then wait till the final stage of this bull run.
Be simple, trade on price action, not the fundamentals which are also improving although it may be deemed MANIPULATED DATA again, set stops, MAKE YOUR OWN DECISIONS AND BLAME NO ONE, be brave and go along with this manipulated bubble
reminds me of the saying "do what he does not what he says". True of many CEOs - that's why people watch for insider buying (not that it is an accurate predictor all the time). The same goes for sentiment also - people vote negative, say all the depressing things, but they buy the stocks anyway.
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