Friday, May 28, 2010

1930s redux

Not politics - just a buildup to the chart.

Even if you think Glenn Beck wears an aluminum foil hat to protect from mind control waves I still think everyone would benefit from his history lessons. And if that is not enough, perhaps you should know what the new Oprah can do for an author he touts. Millions of people seem to be responding.

He posted this chart from on his show this week and it made the case that this decade is not like the 1970s but more like the 1930s. If you believe in the Elliott Wave rule of alternation then it makes sense since that was two major secular bear markets ago.

Anyway, it shows an an inflation adjusted Dow in the 1930s and the inflation adjusted S&P 500 of today. The peaks and troughs sure do line up nicely.

I was prepared to look for a long-term buy-and-hold buying opportunity late this year (when the seasonal, 9-month and 4-year cycles all bottom) but now I am not so sure.

And for you economists out there, weren't things similar back then? Deflation and lots of government spending?

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