Wednesday, December 15, 2010

Hindenburg Schmindenburg

Well, it happened again. The dreaded Hindenburg Omen flashed Tuesday but curiously it went rather unnoticed - except by professionals it would seem.

When it happened in August, it got a lot of people's panties in a bunch. Glenn Beck did a rather lengthy segment on his show (I wrote him to point out some problems with the analysis but never heard back). And self help guru Tony Robbins recorded a YouTube message urging people to sell stocks.  Oy, when non-financial people pick up on something financial "that trick never works" (Rocket J. Squirrel). It is the basis for the Magazine Cover indicator. And it proves that what everyone knows is not worth knowing.

The pros debated the signal today and the biggest issue was the composition of all those new 52-week lows. A lot of them were bond funds, ETFs and worse - inverse ETFs. So did it matter?

Well, maybe not for the signal but perhaps because a sagging bond market is probably not a good thing. Bonds know better than stocks.

And that brings me to today's Barron's Online column where I point out that most of the BRICs are not doing so well lately. Aren't they the engines of global growth? Well, yeah. So what's up with that?

To me, it is another bit of evidence that rose colored glasses lead to disaster.  Of course, you half-full folks would say that the USA is outperforming the so-called engines and that means we are on the mend.

No conclusions here. Just food for thought.

1 comment:

Paul O'Cuana said...

Nice summary. If you look back to April it was rising rates that seemed to undo the stock market.

Btw, could we be seeing support around Fibonacci 61.8 for the 10 year note?