Thursday, October 13, 2011

Bad News

It is a good thing that as a chartist I get to ignore the news. Forget the hope and mirrors coming out of Europe. We all know Greece is going under and they really can't rescue the banks.

I don't know if you follow my Facebook page but I put up two rather depressing charts today. The first was a survey of small business optimism. Or lack thereof. Or dismal-ism.

The second was a survey of Americans who have trouble putting food on the table. The trend there is not good by any spin. We have heard that the level of Americans living in poverty has gone way up. This gets down to what that really means. Forget cell phones and flat screens that seem to be in the homes of the poor. This is food.

Imagine what will happen when (not if) food prices start to climb as inflation finally arrives.

Check out the Facebook page for the charts. And while you are there, do me a favor and hit the "like" button.

1 comment:

Amalan said...

I've been reading all the bad news on this blog with great interest. From the Oct 7 blog comes this gem: "Entered bear market territory? The market enters a bear market right after it peaks. It had a bear market when it loses 20%." A bear market is in place if stocks exceed 20%, not just touches it for a minute. As you very well know, and have repeated many times on these blogs, we should look for the essence of the rule and not the precise data point to the second decimal (I exaggerate to make the point). Even if S&P500 had crossed into 21% territory on a closing basis for a day, it's not sufficient to call it a bear. We need a lot more sustained drop.

Any way, I am not ruling out a brief bear, but I doubt it. All the fundamental data you dig up to show how much people are suffering will continue to show up for a while. There's always good news in the worst markets and bad news in the best markets...

The struggle between the bears and bulls haven't ended. The game goes on within the trading range.

Can't wait for the next 2 months to call the winner!