Friday, October 7, 2011

Staying the course

No, not what your broker told you as stocks imploded in 2008. Perhaps instead of writing "staying the course" I should have written "staying with the big picture." And my big picture says that we are in a cyclical bear market within an ongoing secular bear market.

I was definitely a rough week as stocks came roaring back on yet another round of hope that Greece will be saved. This time, European officials said they had the backs of banks in Europe that were on the hook.  Who thinks that next year we will see a solvent Greece in the EU?  Uh, nobody.

Technically, all the talk that the markets had "entered bear market territory" was the contrary signal needed to spark a short-covering free for all.  Entered bear market territory? The market enters a bear market right after it peaks.  It had a bear market when it loses 20%. Monday saw dangerous financial reporting, indeed.

I am not going to predict the course over the next week or so but if the S&P gets back to 1225 you can bet the exact opposite of Monday's rally will happen.

Look at this chart and you tell me the trend.

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