Saturday, November 19, 2011

Socionomics

A while back I was enamored with Socionomics - the study how the stock market affects social mood. While it is logical to think that it is the other way around - social mood affects stock prices - this group proved that the as goes the stock market so goes the mood.

There is one thing that is striking and somewhat useful for predicting the stock market - even though I just said it is the stock market that comes first. What I mean is that if you can identify the prevailing social mood you can tell what kind of stock market we are in. Since trends persist, it is useful.

Did you notice how sometimes all the movies are happy Disney-esque comedies and love stories while other times action, adventure and monsters dominate? The former appear when stocks have been doing well. The latter appear when they have not been doing so well.  And wars happen near the end of roaring bear markets.

Here is a recent missive:

http://www.socionomics.net/2011/10/asian-markets-presage-the-frequency-and-severity-of-terrorist-attacks/

It suggests that we can have at least a little warning of Al Queda and its buddies terrorist attacks by following the Pakistan Stock Market. Check out their chart before you poo-poo it.

Interesting to say the least.

2 comments:

Normand said...

Hi Michael,

It seems to me that Robert Prechter (father of Socionomics) always, always said that social mood affects the stock market and not the other way around.

Normand

Quick Takes Pro said...

Normand,
The extreme proof is that wars happen after bear markets, not before.