Monday, April 2, 2012

Henery the Eighth?

I'm Henry the eighth I am
Henry the eighth I am, I am
I got married to the widow next door
She's been married seven times before
And every one was an Henry (Henry)
She wouldn't have a Willy or a Sam (no Sam)
I'm her eighth old man, I'm Henry
Henry the eighth I am

Second verse same as the first

- Herman's Hermits, 1965 (cover)

I'm Henry the eighth bear, still taking swipes at a market that keeps going up. The real reason for the song lyrics is the very last line posted above - second verse, same as the first. Will the second quarter in the stock market be the same as the first? That was the hook for today's column on Barron's Online and the working title before the editor went with another.

OK, you got me. I had a rough quarter in stocks. I could never imagined that the Fed with come up with two more iterations of money printing in Operation Twist an ZIRP to 2014. Or that Mr. Chairman would say again he was thinking about thinking about more (that's right, I said thinking twice).

But another 12% for the S&P 500? Come on. Or 18% for the Nasdaq? Can I have some of what you are smoking?

That kind of performance is usually seen after bear markets - directly after bear markets as the indices make some gigunda "V" bottom. (That non-word got the spell checker humming. It though I meant Sigismund - King of Hungary (1387-1437.  Hungary sounds a bit like Henerey, doesn't it?)

Anyway, back to the market. The rally may continue but there are plenty of reasons - new reasons - why it won't.  I listed a few in the column so click on over and have a read. Boost my numbers, please!

Here are two - Italy and Spain. Did you see those markets over the past two weeks? How about another? Greece. Just when you thought it was stabilized, or stabilised in the Queen;'s English, they leave the door open for the need for a third bailout. Their stocks tanked again.

Oiink, oiink!  The PIIGS are still calling.

PIIGS down --> euro down --> dollar up --> stocks down. It's a circle of life to make Mufasa proud.

Oh, there was one more - junk bonds. Was that a breakdown today? We report, you decide. Oops, I quoted Fox again.

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