Thursday, April 26, 2012

WTF

Urban Dictionary has two definitions for WTF. Let's just say World TaeKwonDo Federation is not the one I have in mind.

Let's take a quick romp through this week's market events starting with Wednesday's durable goods report. Even I, as a chartist, knew that was not a good one. But hey, Apple made a boat load of money so up goes the market.

But industrial machinery bellwether, at least in my book, Caterpillar went straight down. Hmmmm.

Thursday, first time jobs claims were below 400,000 but worse than expected. After a burp, the market went up. And then came better-than-expected ending home sales and bang, zoom! Straight to the moon! Stocks took out the mid-April high.

Now wait a minute. Was there crappy housing news last week? And crappy housing news the week before?

I am not saying the market should have done this or that on news. Technicians don't place their bets on that sort of stuff. We care about the market's reaction to the news. Good performance Thursday on a mix of good and bad news is bullish.

But wait a minute. It was not bullish the last time (housing). And why the second major trucker in as many days absolutely crater? (CHRW yesterday, LSTR today). And although it came back quite a bit, air freight behemoth UPS cracked today.

Come on Mr. Market, pick a behavior. Are you shrugging off bad news or are you ignoring it? I am not telling you what to do. That is a losing strategy.  Rather, I beseech (great word!) you to be more than random.

The stocks at the top of the economy - the sexy ones like Apple and Starbucks are soaring. The not so sexy ones at the bottom - truckers, freight, heavy machinery, a few defense stocks (GD), steel, basic metals miners (BHP, RIO, FCX) and a few big chemicals (DOW, DD) are not doing so well.

So, I'll close with the open - WTF?  The DJIA is up 1% while the DJTA us down 1%.

This rally is a house of cards.

1 comment:

Quick Takes Pro said...

OOps, I guess I should have chosen a different coffee stock (DNKN) - crushed on earnings after the bell.