Wednesday, September 19, 2012


I used to write something in this blog every market day. Sometimes it was a chart. Sometimes the ravings of a madman. But there was always something going on and something interesting to write.

Not so much anymore. Earnings, economic reports, interest rates don't matter. The only thing that matters is whether or not Ben will print. Well, the Bankin' Brothers (Barnanke and Draghi) have shot their loads. They are all in forever at this point and there is nothing left. Well, unless they buy car loans and abandoned storage lockers.

Today, Japan joined the printing party. China threw in their unnecessary infrastructure plan earlier this month. Come on, Bulgaria, Botswana and Burma (they all start with "B"). Join the Bankin' Buddies and buy some junk paper. What could possibly go wrong?

So I was looking around my data machine for anything that might be half interesting. I saw the Baltic Dry Index chart back at 2008 crisis lows. That's interesting, right? Well, not really as the path of this index has had nothing to do with stocks and bonds for years.
Or is it? Maybe the rally off 2008 was the optimism of recovery and after it broke down in 2010 it tells us that the global economy is tanking (pun intended). It sure would make the stock market's disconnect look positively delusional.

I then checked out another oddball - LIBOR.

During the financial crisis, LIBOR soared and the TED spread went with it. Banks did not want to lend to each other and this proved it. Crisis. Panic!

But look at it now. This is a daily chart so it does not show current levels in context. But why is it falling off a cliff? Are banks now the only place to be? Maybe - with all that free stimulus cash.

Beats me what LIBOR means now.

So, I will go back into my cave. Some of you may have noticed my Barron's Online columns being rather bullish over the past few weeks and thinking that the last bear has caved making the biggest sell signal ever. Have no fear. I do not expect this to last to the election. I may still be a bear but that does not mean I cannot get my clients some profits on the long side while we wait.


stevenshecht said...

i love your blog and wish you would write more. get your morning email and read barrons regularly. i am a bear also on the phony foundation of this stock market. but the technicals have overswamped me. i am cautious now with so many stocks way above their moving averages. inflating and debasing is not sound monetary policy. how is obama still leading in the polls? wasn't Romney correct in that most Democrats are on the dole?

Quick Takes Pro said...

Thanks for the kudos but the sheer volume of what I write in a week would weigh down an elephant.

As for Romney and the 47%, that is not a topic for this blog.

The actions taken by all parts of the government since 2008 (yes, before the election) will come back to haunt us. For now, the market is on a sugar high. S

See next blog post.