Tuesday, September 9, 2008

Oil Vey!

Yeah, like nobody thought of that title before. I do live in New York Post country.

Crude oil is killing me here but as I always point out the trend is not the same as it once was. Now it is time to listen to my own sage advice and stop trying to catch a falling knife - even though in my gut I think oil is not done rallying in the long-term.

Have I capitulated? Yeah, sure. But have I been pounding the table saying it was cheap all these months? Nope. I just made a few bad trades. That is hardly a raging bull throwing in the towel. More like a bottom fisher choking on sand.

I do believe that the dollar is partly to blame for my foibles. (Have to blame something for being wrong, don't I?)

But what has been the case all year it seems is that technical analysis is not working the way we expect. Prices hit support and they are supposed to stop going down if not start going up. Lately, the way it has worked is prices penetrate support, get the newbies excited to short and then the market turns around. Fooled you! Now stop confusing brains with a bull market.

Anyway, oil broke support at the 2008 rally 50% retracement mark so down it goes, right? Oil stocks were down 4% this morning so it all looks terrible.

And that's just when things don't work the way we expect them to work.

2 comments:

Doug said...

I haven't been following oil so I can't relate to the details of what you speak of but I must give kudos to part of the write up. "I have to blame someone..." good stuff, thanks
as I have pondered maybe going long in a dividend yielding stock, that phrase about catching a falling knife did enter into my mind today...interesting you used it also....hmmm

happyfatty said...

im in the same boat...thought id be smart and play DIG for a quick rally, and road it down 9 PTS! the pain eased today, but I must agree...if IKE isnt helping a rally, its time to withdraw and watch this play stabilize