Tuesday, May 12, 2009

Quiet Again - deja vu

Yes, it does feel like we've been through today already. Price action is tight. Really good headlines are scarce - unless it is MarketWatch's yucky redesign that is hiding them. OK, General Motors sunk to its lowest level since 1933. Big whoop - it's going bankrupt.

Pfizer is up sharply on big volume and Coke doesn't look too shabby. And Mr. Softee, with its billions in cash reserve, hit the credit markets for its first even bond offering. Many speculate an acquisition is in the offing - Yahoo perhaps? Or are they just being smart little corporate managers and taking advantage of low interest rates? Only Steve Ballmer's hairdresser knows for sure.

In yesterday's Barron's Online column, I expanded on Saturday's blog. The offense/defense ratio is starting to turn from offense to defense. That explains Coke and Pfizer - both defensive names (consumer staples and healthcare, respectively).

Next, in this morning's newsletter, I took a look at the Bullish Percent Index. Plenty of areas of the market are set up for a top. What is missing is the trigger, which I will have to withhold here out of respect to subscribers. Let's just say it is close - very close.

Finally, as I started to work my way through the cyberclutter to get to this post, the Dow was negative. Everything was indeed quiet and now with the Dow up 50 the old saw once again proves true - never short a dull market.

Or never, day trade short a dull market.


Mike said...

I'll take a guess at the trigger. Options expiration. Last May, the market turned down on the Monday following options expiration.

MrWave4 said...

Look forward to reading your newsletter & learning why we are close to rolling over. I signed up for your newsletter today. It's close to midnight in my part of the world.

Quick Takes Pro said...

Mike - Could be. I was thinking more of the trigger within the indicator but that could set it off.

Quick Takes Pro said...

MrWave - Welcome aboard!

Mike said...

So based on today's futures, I guess you were looking for weakness in the retail sales figure. I guess the XLY was predicting that and is now following through.