In today's column I point out a few things about the market that remain bearish as well as lay out a bullish scenario. The VIX dropping like a stone only gives me more reason to doubt the rally.
Also, the trendline from the low was tested from below today (it is not yet 3pm Eastern as I write this). If we get a weak close, resistance holds, momentum divergence and volume was up on a reversal day. If we get a strong close, we still wait as discussed in the column.
As for the reader poll, the results were not conclusive enough for mention in the column. We can keep the results among ourselves here and note that the majority look for declines from here. And half think it sets a new low.
Are we to be faded? As I said, the percentages were not conclusive and our sample size was small. However, blog readers are typically more sophistacted in the markets than folks who just hand their cash over to advisors. I'd say we - and I mean you - do not represent the public and may be closer to smart money.
Be careful fading anything. It really has to be something quite lopsided for true contrarianism.