Wednesday, June 24, 2009

Review of an old forecast

Here is a link to a March 20, 2008 post in this blog:

Essentially, I laid out a framework for the next year or two and how I saw two cycles of rally and decline before the major basing process completed. As we all know, the first rally was hot and if I am right it ended this month.

In today's column, you will see that the upper border for the pattern has been flattened out but the cycles remain. I am not after short-term trading turns but rather a framework on which to hang your strategy.

More after the column is published. I don't want to step on it.


Mike Harris said...

Hey Mike. I've have been reading your columns over past half year and read today's in barron's. keep up the good work. I definitely agree with your analysis. How much significance do you put into the MACD? for instance, I generated a sell signal about 950 when the SPY made a higher high in early June while the MACD made a lower high when compared to Early May. This to me showed defined momentum shift. Thanks for the thoughts.

Quick Takes Pro said...

We actually went over the MACD divergence in Quick Takes Pro. That would be a "yes, it is significant."

shirley said...

Dear Mike,

I've been reading your colums since April09 without fail. I also follow and practise what you wrote. In May I sold all my shares and in June I bought plenty of shares after you turned bull. However, I am always wrong....I am much poorer now. Well I still read your colums and hope you will be right soon.