Friday, October 9, 2009

Voodoo technicals

I have railed against the classification of technical analysis as voodoo and prediction since I believe, when properly applied, all it does is give you probabilities so you can make one decision - buy, sell or hold. Yes, if you buy you are "predicting" the market will go up but you do not really know how high and for how long.

I have seen a lot of "experts" these days talking about how the market did this BECAUSE it hit some moving average or some indicator reached some level. This is crap and only adds to the perception that TA is a bunch of hooey.

The market does not reverse because it hits an average. The market reverses if sellers become more active than buyers and that TENDS to happen around the average or resistance level. It TENDS to happen when the market slows down in its speed of advance and sellers finally poke their heads out of their caves.

Please run from any web videos you see where they say "the dollar did this" and "that led to that" and "then it finally calmed down so stocks stopped moving." Its CRAP!!!! And it is useless in telling you what to do about it.

NOBODY knows where the markets are going and NOBODY knows why things are happening AS THEY ARE HAPPENING. Everyone is a genius after the fact. My job is to weigh the evidence and make a decision. And then to know as soon as possible if it was the wrong decision.

OK, rant over. No, I will not divulge the name of the web-based advisory that sparked my rage.

3 comments:

forexguy said...

TA is alchemy. I liked the article. Especially the last paragraph.

Mikey said...

I couldn't agree more, Mike - but be warned - rage increases with age ...
Mikey

Quick Takes Pro said...

Mikey,

Now that your identity has been divulged (elsewhere) I must say that you present anti-rage. Therefore, you are still a youngster!