Tuesday, January 26, 2010

Market kudos

You have to give the market its due. After getting smooshed last week, everyone who was not scared KNEW it would bounce. Yet so far it has been all head fakes and give backs. I won't make a prediction here but the market is clearly the boss.

We make comparisons to various years and the market does something different.
We look at the last bear and the the market does something different.

Now we hear that 2004 is the next year from the past in vogue as an analog. You know, a choppy drift lower before the next upside breakout in a major bull market. Really? This is the middle of a bull market? I can understand it extending beyond where the evidence says it SHOULD but extended major bull market?

When they pull the plug on stimulus and insanely low interest rates, laissez les bon temps roulez - for the bears.

1 comment:

Paul O'Cuana said...

Interesting development with Investors' Intelligence Sentiment Survey. The percentage of Bulls has fallen from 52.2 to 40.0 this week, and the percentage of Bears has risen, in the last two weeks, from 15.9 to 23.3.
Normally one would expect a countertrend rally after a big move in the weekly numbers.

Paul O'Cuana