Friday, January 15, 2010

The rally will end Feb 15

OK, now that I have your attention, just look at this chart with some time relationships. If, and that is a big word, each segment of this rally is the same length in days then Feb 15 is trading day 70 since the October closing low.

Each segment sure feels different, though. The first was the urgent buying when the world did not end. The second was a more orderly ebb and flow higher as we'd expect in "normal
"rallies. The third, where we are now, has been low volume, low interest, end of the year then start of the year grudging tiny motion. As a colleague put it, it is an eerie calm.

If you want to slap some Elliott on this, then the middle wave is the longest and the current one can end right about now. I don't see much in the way of Fibonacci relationships here, however.

Or, this is a three, not five wave affair and the latter two segments should be taken together. That puts them together as twice as long as the first. But I don't see the Fibos here, either.

Just some food for thought as most people leave time out of their analysis completely.


Smart Predictor said...

Hi Michael:
Thanks for the post!

Based on my cycle work Feb 12th, 2010 is turning out to be a significant low, instead of a high. But surely, that agrees closely with a 70TD cycle!


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