Monday, July 12, 2010

You want the truth?

Rant warning

The battle we bears fight every day is from critics, not the market. Someone told me I have been bearish since he has known me although he did temper that with acknowledging I went along with the 2009 rally (well, a good chunk of it). I got the same treatment last week when my intermediate-term call was interrupted by a short-term rally.

The truth is that bearish newsletters do not sell very well. I would love to be bullish and that was the impetus for today's Barron's Online column (commercial vehicles and trucks). It is one of those "in case I am wrong" analyses but it is dependent on the market firming. At least nobody can accuse me of not keeping an open mind.

Do you want the truth or do you want me to agree with your opinion? They may be the same thing but if they are not then you (and I mean the generic "you") are the one with tunnel vision, not me.

I want to be bullish for many selfish reasons including newsletter sales. Tell that to the market.

Rant over


Wayne said...

Seems like every day you focus on the bad, what about positive developments to the upside ? Since the Stock market has not crashed, collapsed, evaporated into perma- bear abyss targets, it clearly is discounting something positive? Whilst bears focus on the doom and gloom of double dip recessions, depressions, armageddon's, focusing wholly on the 15% downtrend price action since the April peak, though conveniently forgetting the 70% advance before it. You also mentioned the volume a lot, you are right, it is low, as the retail investors are not buying, they only buy or sell at the end of the cycle, and the volume has been low since March 2009, so what is new?

Michael Kahn said...


Yes, I do focus on the negative because that is what I think will to eventually win. I am not afraid to buy stocks when warranted and indeed do just that.

What is most damaging to your argument is saying that bears "conveniently forget the 70% advance before it." If you want to go there, then you "conveniently" forget the 50% decline before that.

I bet we agree on a lot more about this market than we disagree so it must be a matter of time frames that separate us.