I have been bearish on bonds for months now and the breakdown seen in June has been negated. Not only that, but it looks as if a new short-term uptrend has begun, too. So much for rising rates...or is it?
While Treasuries are seeing lots of buying, both high quality corporate bonds are still being sold and high yield, aka low quality corporate bonds are being sold with a vengeance. To me that means flight to quality, not a bad call on interest rates.
Yes, it is the treasury market that sets the tone for rates but the action in the corporate market is telling us that something is not quite right. Maybe it is not inflation. Maybe it is just lousy earnings prospects and either way I do not want to get locked into any long-term maturities.