Chris Carolan published an award winning paper on Autumn Panics (visit www.mta.org to see it) in which he outlined the probabilities for major, major breaks in the stock market in autumn - but based on the lunar calendar. This is not astrology but observed cycles.
I have been asking him if he sees one this year and did not get a satisfying answer. It was more of a "didn't check" type of response. Considering how important his work is, if anyone can convince him for an update, please do. Chris? Are you reading this?
We havenot seen a huge Sep-Oct debacle in a long time and I get a lay feeling that we are due. Chris' blog said recently that evidence for a bottom is building so I am conflicted. Chris or Chris?
Time to stop speaking for him. From my own work I am just plain worried.
More tomorrow.
4 comments:
Again, more great information in your Blog; Can I subscribe to the blog and not the newsletter:)
Isn't the extension of the SEC ban on short selling wonderful? On the short side of the market, I don't have to worry about these violent short covering rallies. On the other hand, what's there to catch the market?
I'm beginning to really get nervous about the gov't sledgehammer...a bull in a china shop if you'll excuse the pun.
I always appreciate your thought and obsevations made in each blog.
best regards
If Mikey does not get paid somewhere, Mikey will not blog anywhere.
Thanks for the kudos. The lack of free market can only hurt the stock market but you certainly are right about not worrying about a short covering rally.
http:/www.carolan.org has his latest notes
Chris finally surfaced and said he is not looking for an Autumn Panic this year. posted 10/8/08
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