Monday, October 6, 2008

Reasons for a Bottom, part 3

OK, this is one of my more obscure pop culture references and marginally recognizable at best. Ian Dury, singer with the Brit-new wave group the Blockheads had a tune called "Reasons to be cheerful, part 3." Perhaps having my head spin around on my neck (like a record, baby - oh damn, I did it again. This time 80s dance new wave.) watching the stock market trade in a normal daily rhythm but magnified literally 10 times.

Down 200
Down 150
Down 500
Down 300
Down 500
Down 800 - O.M.G.!!!
Down 500
Down 350
Down 450
Down 370 at the close

It would have been a lot more normal at down 20, down 50, down 80, down 37, wouldn't it? You betcha, Sarah!

Today's Barron's Online piece discussed the VIX and how it may not be signaling a bottom despite riding a rocket to uncharted heights. Of course, after I wrote it - at about 12:30 pm ET, the VIX kept going to even higher levels before the stock market rallied some 430 points - a melt-up in normal times. It looked like the VIX was indeed starting to signal something. Oh the joy of being an analyst with a deadline.

Check out the stats for the day - more than half of the NYSE hit 52-week lows. Although the AMEX and Nazzie fared a bit better, according to Rob Hanna posting on a markets chat list, the last time that happened was - drum roll - October 19 and 20, 1987.

While the market has not crashed in the traditional sense, if there is such a thing, many now believe that it has been crashing piece by piece for months. Has anyone checked out steel stocks? How about fertilizer stocks? Base metals miners? And this does not include banks, brokers, insurance and homebuilders that we all know got flushed down the bowl.

So did the market finally capitulate? Gotta save something for the paying folk but check out this link to a story released before today's open: Jim Cramer: Time to get out of the stock market

I'm just sayin'

1 comment:

Abby said...

Hi! I'm an editor for Seeking Alpha. Please contact me at your earliest convenience at acarmel@seekingalpha.com. Abby