Friday, October 10, 2008

Fool talking heads once, shame on you

Fool talking heads every single time the market takes a header, shame on them.

And shame on everyone who thinks they know where the market will bottom, when the market will bottom and how it will bottom. Nobody knows, not even - shudder - technical analysts.

Let me explain something about our tea leaf reading, head bump feeling, chicken entrails waving, crystal ball fondling chart guys (and ladies). Nobody knows what the market will do. But what the good technicians can do better than anyone else is assess market risk and market reward and take a position - figuratively or literally.

I don't mean bet the farm on every trade. And in today's market, Larry Williams said it best that the best risk control is in position size. That means, a toe in the water, not your whole body.

If it is wrong, they stop out for a limited loss. If it is right, they add to the winner and ride it until it no longer has a good risk/reward profile.

But the point is that it is time to stop listening to the talking heads - meaning what they say. What you should do now is listen to how they say it. Are they visibly shaken by the decline? Are they spouting nonsense about riding it out with a smug face or deer in the headlights look?

Is the theme of the interview or presentation - how to identify bottoms or how to survive the bear?

I think we switched from looking for the bottom to talking about how fearful everyone is and that is the first sign of a bottom. I DID NOT SAY WE HIT THE BOTTOM (or that we did not hit the bottom) and I certainly will not say it in a free blog. But look at everyone's face this weekend and ask them about the stock market. How much panic will you see/hear?

2 comments:

TradeDog said...

One of Larry Williams' best quotes is "bet small, win big. Bet big, lose big".

Fitz said...

Right. Not enough panic in the eyes yet. MSM is falling down on the job !