Thursday, April 23, 2009

Capitulate Luke. I am your Father

Can you tell I've been a little loony today? Darth Vader is telling Luke to come over to the dark side and capitulate with this rally and accept banks' resilience.

I see dead stocks. (OK, too obscure. I see dead people).

It is almost as if the voices in my head are saying to turn bullish and make the pain stop. Ah, sweet pain. Forget the technicals except for the trend. Technicals don't work in a manipulated market, they added.

Indeed. How can the rest of us conveniently misplace a month like Goldman Sachs? And now we find out former Treasury Secretary Pat, er, Henry Paulson (any Laugh-In fans?) twisted B of A's arms to buy Merrill Lynch and save the market.

Right now, it is just plain easier to join the crowd and assume every dip will last one or two days. But we know the market is not like that. As soon as buying dips becomes easy the rules change.

So what do we do? Sorry, have to keep something for subscribers but I can say this - stick with your analysis. Don't let the chat rooms sway you. It is difficult but that is why clients pay us.

I stand by my column and still lean bearish. My toes are in the water but I must let the market confirm the real deal before really taking the plunge.

4 comments:

bmbull said...

Even though that market hasn't really pulled back yet, it hasn't exactly moved higher this week either, and did take out last week's lows.

Even with AAPL's earnings last night, the Naz A/D line was pretty red today.

Your bearish view might just take a little bit longer to pan out -- but it looks like the market is struggling a bit here.

RPS said...

Worden T2108 still far over to the right of the bus with 89% of stocks above the 40 day average.

If companies can only lay off enough workers, then prosperity is assured?

Quick Takes Pro said...

RPS,

Is that an indicator of some kind? Please explain.

bmbull said...

Michael,

In answer to your question, yes -- it's a Worden Telechart indicator of the percentage of stocks above their 40-day moving average:

http://www.yachtsmanretirementinvesting.com/id153.html