Thursday, April 2, 2009

Trannies

I was going to post a follow up to yesterday's column (where I said the evidence was not yet decisive one way or the other) but am waiting for the close today. Will it stick or accelerate into the close? or will it reverse in the final "pro" hour (vs. the first hour dedicated to amateurs).

Here is a longer-term tidbit for you.

The Dow Transports are up 8% today (3:25 ET) while oil is up 8.8%. Strong trannies in the face of rising oil means something and that something is fundamentally bullish.

There, I used the F word.

5 comments:

VC said...

Michael,

Enjoyed the column yesterday. Indeed, it's been a heck of a battle between bulls and bears the last week or so. With regards to your mention of new lows, I'm surprised that the number of new highs has been nearly non-existent since this rally kicked off. Shouldn't we expect certain sectors to break out and lead the market towards higher ground? Coupled with the fact that both the Financial and Banking groups cannot break past their respective resistance points, I don't see how the bulls maintain the upper hand moving forward. Then again I thought the rally would fizzle at 780-800...

Quick Takes Pro said...

Thanks for the kudos.

As for new highs, when everything has been falling for anywhere from 40 - 60 weeks, it is a tall order to expect fresh 52-week highs. The math is just not there for most everything.

Yet, some sectors are breaking out. They are just not close to 52-week highs.

paulocuana said...

"For the first time in five years, a majority of money managers favor bonds over stocks, reports the quarterly Investment Manager Outlook Survey by Russell Investments."
-Barron's

Another bit of evidence. Can the bottom be far away?

Gaell said...

I recently came accross your blog and have been reading along. I thought I would leave my first comment. I dont know what to say except that I have enjoyed reading. Nice blog. I will keep visiting this blog very often.


Ann

http://externallaptop.net

Quick Takes Pro said...

Gaell,

Thanks for finding me!