From my favourite market jokester, Alex Spiroglou in London:
After sixteen games, it has become clear that that the countries with less debt as a % of GDP are more likely to win World Cup games.
In Europe, Greece lost, Spain lost, Italy tied Paraguay, Portugal tied the Ivory Coast, and Ireland missed the cut. Winners include Germany, Switzerland, and the Netherlands.
In Asia, South Korea and Japan won; North Korea loses.
In Latin America, Brazil wins and Mexico ties. Moody"s upgraded Chile to AA3 from A1 citing the country"s favorable debt profile, and promptly beats Honduras.
Using debt and projected deficits as the measuring stick, an England/US tie makes perfect sense.
(or both lose and gold goes up - mk)