Thursday, August 12, 2010

AAII Sentiment Survey: Bearish Sentiment Falls to a 14-Week Low

From their newsletter update.

Bullish sentiment rose 9.4 percentage points to 39.8% in the latest Sentiment Survey. Despite the size of the increase, the proportion of individual investors expecting stock prices to rise over the next six months is only at a two-week high. The historical average is 39%.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially flat over the next six months, fell 1.3 percentage points to 30.1%. The historical average is 31%.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall, dropped 8.1 percentage points to 30.1%. This is a 14-week low. The historical average is 30%.

The survey period, Thursday through Wednesday, needs to be taken into consideration when looking at these results. Stock prices were essentially flat through most of this week’s survey period (with the obvious exception of yesterday), giving some investors hope that a short-term bottom had been established.

Though there were big changes in bullish and bearish sentiment, both optimism and pessimism are close to their historical averages. As a result, I would argue that individual investors confidence in the market remains fragile.

1 comment:

William said...

The VIX is back to the level right before the flash crash. And cash levels at mutual funds are still near all time lows. Granted, people are starting to worry, but I would say only just starting.