Monday, August 23, 2010

Canary in a Coal Mine

First to fall over when the atmosphere is less than perfect
Your sensibilities are shaken by the slightest defect
You live you life like a canary in a coalmine
You get so dizzy even walking in a straight line
- The Police

I wrote about four sectors today in my column. Rather than just accept that they are key, I wanted to be clear why I think they are indeed key.

  • Financial - Why? Because that's where the money is (bank robber Willie Sutton). That's where it all begins.
  • Housing - Because that's what started this mess in the first place and must be fixed for hope of a recovery
  • Retail - If we are a consumer driven economy and consumers buy retail then this one is clear
  • Technology - Studies show corporations have lots of cash after making good profits this year and not hiring any workers. They can invest in themselves or go the easy way and buy another company. The latter means even more job cuts so that ain't good for the economy. Therefore, we can call this "industrial buying" (vs. consumer buying).

1 comment:

William said...

Mike, regarding your Hindenburg article, you said that you would be more worried if multiple signals occurred within a few weeks. It is my understanding that it was almost tripped last again last Thursday, but then was tripped for sure again Friday. So two definites and a maybe within a week and a half...