Thursday, March 3, 2011

Socionomically Speaking - $5 gas

Today's theory is that stock markets tell us the social mood. A falling market forecasts problems and the worse the bear the worse the reaction - war being the ultimate expression of foul social mood.

Some would say people get mad and then the market falls. The folks at the Socionomics Institute say just the opposite. Therefore, looking at the Saudi index as we have over the past few days makes me think all is not well there. And if all is not well then oil may not be well and $5 gas is not such a stretch.

So, here we have the Turkey ETF. Looks pretty ugly and if the theory holds then there may be some problems looming. Technically, we can make a case for a bounce to the averages but the death cross seems pretty good on this particular chart. It is not so good in domestic markets these day.

How about the Middle East ETF?

That is pretty yoogli, too. It does not bode well for peace although a dozen percent decline in socionomic terms is only a minor signal.  Let's just wait for the القط الميت bounce.

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