Thursday, September 9, 2010

Grandma again

I wrote this before and almost submitted it to my editor for today's column.

If Grandma had wheels she'd be a bicycle.

Excerpt:

But breakouts from patterns as the current large one require a marked mood swing, from apathetically neutral to energetically bullish. That is what breakouts are all about — getting the crowd moving one way or the other.
That shift seems nowhere in evidence. But if the market can suddenly fire up all burners and get the public back in the game, then I will have to eat my hat. (end quote)

IF the market can fire up on all burners it would be a bull market
IF Grandma......

She doesn't and neither does the market

1 comment:

William said...

Mike,

To me the crowd is still overall very bullish. Cash at mutual funds declined again to an all time low or 3.4%, so they are all in and HAVE to be bullish. A great example was two weeks ago. The AAII numbers were out and everyone on CNBC was using that as a bullish indicator. Now that the new numbers show a nearly 25 point rise in two weeks, and a headline number that is 5 points about the historical average, the pundits are quiet. When something is only significant when it goes in your favor, I think that keys you in to the overall crowd's desire. And that is to be bullish.

With so much on the line, the overall crowd HAS to be bullish. If the market goes against them, them will get crushed with so little cash.

Cash levels have only been this low in 2000 and 2007.... both great years to jump in an buy...