Monday, September 20, 2010

Triple Digits? Must be Monday

Once again, the Dow scooted up triple digits on Monday and just as it was showing its lactic acid NBER declared that the recession ended in June.  Nothing like driving while looking in the rear view mirror.

Timed with this report was President Obama's town hall meeting on CNBC. Honestly, I do not know why he did it as the bulk of questions were about his perceived anti-business stance and how people can no longer pay mortgages, student loans and live the dream. Was it to say, "You know, you are right and we'll keep the tax cuts for all."  Or was it to say, "You know, you are right, we should enforce trade laws."

You get the drift. And I don't want to get political as that is not what this blog is about.

So the stock market rallied - a lot. Cyclicals/heavy industrials are strong. Housing got some good news and did well. Retail marches higher.  Commodities broke out last this month but today were weak - except gold and oil, of course.

Check out copper. A bear reversal? What is going on here? If stocks were down, everything would make sense given higher gold and bonds and lower commodities. But stocks are up and that means some other factor is at work.

It's not retail. Stock volume still stinks.

It's not mutual funds. They are already operating on record low cash.

That means traders trading with traders. Enough to suck in Joe 401-K no doubt.


William said...

Looking at the last COT, large speculators went net short two weeks ago, and increased shorts last week again. Meanwhile small speculators have been covering shorts over the same period after fighting the trend almost all the way up. This could very well be short cover capitulation among the "dumb money."

patrick neid said...

What I always try to remind myself are the previous long term trading ranges of the Dow etc. The last 1966-82 had a series of highs and lows--four or five tests of the highs and lows. Each time the crowd was convinced this was it.

Until I see otherwise I assume we will test the old highs and the March 09 lows, probably missing each by a certain percent. Meanwhile Presidents will come and go and depending where they are in the cycle they will either be Hoover or Roosevelt--through no fault of their own.