Wednesday, September 29, 2010

How do you know....

....when the market is starting its collapse?

Silly question since there is no collapse? Or perhaps silly because there will not be one?

Again, I ask how do you know? Who knew on that day in October 2007 that we just saw a high in stocks that would last at least two years?

I get the feeling that gold is starting such a move - only to the upside. It has been too strong and too resilient in the face of some fierce arguments that it is a bubble or that the GLD ETF is self propagating or that it cannot possibly grow any more. Or that it costs too much to hold. Or that it has not use other than to hold. Or that there is deflation.

Yet day after day it moves higher.

And bonds are not budging. And the two-year yield is still near record lows. And the yen has nearly come all the way back from the abyss of silly government intervention.

So I ask again, how do you know?

I don't. I just have a feeling that something somewhere is going to spook the herd and the Dow will drop 1000 points.

The good news is that it will scare the pants off everyone and set the stage for the real bottom.

3 comments:

Mack said...

Michael, I think you're right on here.

bmbull said...

I agree as well -- I've referred to the current situation as a buildup of 'tension' (think rubber band) that is going to have to be released at some point. Things don't go up or down every single day for too long...

MrWave4 said...

The large specs have been increasing there net short positions (cme emini spx futures positions) for the last few weeks. My research shows they have a incredible knack of picking turning points ?