Friday, July 31, 2009


I have never been too vocal in the CNBC is Bubblevision argument although admittedly I have made reference to it before. However, this morning I saw something that did bolster the view many have the this news station is a bit biased towards bullishness.

They have plenty of flash from graphics to special reports but today the screen shot just said "Summer Rally." Did that mean they think it is just going to last another month? Did that come out as a contrarian sentiment indicator might?

They also had a "stat" that July was up 61% of the time. Meaningful? Since 11 of the 12 months average gains over time that means they are up at least 50% of the time (September is the exception). The gains made over the winter dwarf the summer gains so is winning enough for investors to embrace? I personally would care about making a lot, not just winning 61% of the time.

Anyway, just my .02. The combination of "theme" and statistic just got me thinking that everyone seem to be bullish again. Even the AAII survey flipped from 54% bears three weeks ago to 31% now. The percent bulls also changed some 20%.


Ramu said...

I dont know how you feel. I can sense some desperation in your recent posts. No offense. To me, I feel like all the people who bought at these levels took a pill and went into hibernation. I HAVE NO IDEA WHY THERE IS NO VOLUME AND IT KEEP GOING UP. WHERE ARE THESE SELLERS? Dont they want to get out. Do they still think there is room and better prices to sell and come out? I see some ominous signs for bears (us). Hope some logic returns to wall street. This is crazy....everyday? Its just not going down.

Ramu said...

Take this..Nasdaq 2286 by Sept 8th. Yaa..I will stop trading for GOOD if that happens.

keithed said...

You seem to forget that there were and still are many bears that are short and having to cover them have an upward effect on the market. The volume in summer time especially in this climate is normal. If fall and winter bring no increase in the volume then we can step back and wonder...........hang in there bear you will have your run sooner or later.

July 31, 2009 6:28PM